AICD Chief Economist

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How global and Australian economic forecasts are changing

6 July 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell looks at the latest IMF report on the global economic outlook as well as Bloomberg's monthly forecast on Australia's projected growth.

Confidence wobbles as COVID cases climb

3 July 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Consumer confidence dropped in response to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in Victoria. Payroll data suggest that the labour market has continued to recover gradually from its earlier collapse, bu...

Global gloom but forecast upgrades for Australia

26 June 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

New CBA data suggests private sector services activity in Australia rebounded this month. Total job vacancies suffered an unprecedented fall in the three months to May. Preliminary data suggest retail...

Grim labour market as jobless rate hits 7.1 per cent

19 June 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

May’s Australian labour market report showed employment fell by more than 227,000 last month, while the unemployment rate rose to 7.1 per cent. It would have been much higher if the participation rate...

End of an era: Q1 fall in GDP signals end of recession-free run

5 June 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s real GDP shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, signalling the end of almost three decades of recession-free growth. The March quarter also saw us record our fourth consecutive curre...

Consumer confidence and ASX rise, construction spend falls

29 May 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Consumer confidence rose again (just) for an eighth consecutive week and there are now accompanying signs of a recovery in consumer spending as captured by bank credit and debit card data. Financial m...

Consumer confidence climbs but spending still low

22 May 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

A weekly measure of consumer confidence has now improved for seven weeks in a row. Even so, retail turnover collapsed in April. Payroll data continue to paint a bleak picture of the overall state of t...

Jobless rate up to 6.2 per cent as employment falls

15 May 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Mixed messages on the economy this week. The April labour market report showed the headline unemployment rate ‘only’ rose to 6.2 per cent, a much better result than markets had expected. But the devil...

Economic costs are mounting as labour market stress increases

8 May 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement today Friday. The May statement says output is expected to contract significantly over the first half of 2020, most...

From inflation to deflation…and back again?

1 May 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose by 2.2 per cent over the year in the March quarter, marking the first time that headline inflation made it inside the RBA’s target band since 2018. Next quarter ...

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