AICD Chief Economist

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Budget 2021-22: Setting the Scene

11 May 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD, Christian Gergis

Last year brought Australia’s first Pandemic Budget. A few days beforehand, the Prime Minister had described it as ‘arguably one of the most important, if not the most important since the...

RBA sticks with status quo as budget day approaches

7 May 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

At its 4 May meeting the RBA again left all of its key policy settings unchanged despite flagging new and more optimistic forecasts for growth and unemployment. It also promised decisions on its yiel...

Underlying inflation falls to record low

30 April 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6 per cent over the March quarter to be up just 1.1 per cent in annual terms. The annual rate of underlying inflation fell to a record low of 1.1 per cen...

March retail sales buoyed by state exits from lockdown

23 April 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Retail turnover rose 1.4 per cent over the month in March, boosted by growth in Victoria and Western Australia after both states had exited from February lockdowns. Minutes from the RBA’s 6 April mee...

Record highs for jobs, business conditions, consumer sentiment at 11-year high

16 April 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

According to the monthly NAB survey, business conditions hit a record high in March, underpinned by record highs for trading conditions, profitability and employment. In March Labour Force figures ann...

RBA unmoved as housing market surges

8 April 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

At its meeting this week the RBA acknowledged the strength of Australia’s recovery but decided once again to leave all its major policy settings unchanged and continued to predict no change to t...

Business activity robust despite supply chain woes

26 March 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s Flash Composite PMI rose to a three-month high in March, indicating the strongest rise in business activity since December last year, while input prices rose at their fastest pace in the (...

Australia’s recovery races on as unemployment rate drops to 5.8 per cent

19 March 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

February delivered another excellent result for the labour market with employment up by almost 89,000 people and the unemployment rate plunging by half a percentage point to 5.8 per cent. That left em...

Business confidence highest since 2010, consumer sentiment close behind

12 March 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose to close to a ten-year high in March. February saw NAB’s monthly index of business confidence reach its highest level since early 2010. ...

GDP growth up 3.1 per cent in Q4:2020 while RBA holds line on monetary policy

5 March 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s real GDP rose 3.1 per cent over the December 2020 quarter, comfortably beating market expectations, as the economy continued to enjoy a household-led recovery. Despite last week’s bond ma...

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