AICD Chief Economist

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MYEFO shows Canberra sticking to its fiscal guns

20 December 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) saw the government stick with (pared back) targets for budget surpluses this year and next but refrain from offering any significant fiscal stimulus.

The Dismal Science - Unconventional wisdom

16 December 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Mark and Ivan discuss the latest growth numbers, the outlook for monetary policy and developments in the housing market.

Business and consumer confidence remain subdued

13 December 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

After last week’s bumper crop of Australian data, things were much quieter this week. The monthly NAB business survey suggested business conditions remained relatively subdued in November while the W...

Stuck in the doldrums: Q3 GDP disappoints as RBA remains on hold

6 December 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

A raft of Australian data releases this week as the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its last meeting of 2019.

RBA sets out views on unconventional monetary policy

29 November 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The focus this week was on RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech on unconventional monetary policy, which has encouraged some forecasters to tip the arrival of a terminal cash rate of 0.25 per cent ...

RBA considers more action as Canberra accelerates infrastructure spend

22 November 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

No major Australian data releases this week, but the minutes from the last RBA Board Meeting revealed that policymakers had contemplated another rate cut at the 5 November meeting despite some qualms ...

A labour market stuck in the doldrums? Wage growth still sluggish as unemployment edges higher

15 November 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3 per cent in October as the number of people employed fell by 19,000, the first monthly drop since 2018 and the largest fall since 2016.

RBA prepared to ease monetary policy if needed but no change to cash rate this month

8 November 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The RBA has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy. The bank has signalled it is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed and has downgraded consumption and economic growth for t...

Still waiting for Godot inflation

1 November 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Headline inflation ticked up marginally to 1.7 per cent in the September quarter while underlying inflation was unchanged at 1.6 per cent.

A deep dive into the Director Sentiment Index

25 October 2019 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Director sentiment slides again.

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