AICD Chief Economist

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Political turmoil keeps the world economy off balance

27 September 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

RBA Governor Lowe delivered an update on the Australian economy but didn’t quite give markets the unambiguous signal of a 1 October rate cut they’d been looking for.

Unemployment up as budget returns to balance

20 September 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Australia’s unemployment rate edged up to 5.3 per cent in August, prompting markets to revise their views on the likelihood of an RBA rate cut at the upcoming 1 October meeting.

Still not feeling it: Rate cuts, tax offsets yet to improve business, consumer sentiment

13 September 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

More signs of recovery in the Australian housing market this week. But business and consumer sentiment both sank again, suggesting the monetary and fiscal stimulus we’ve seen to date is getting only l...

The Dismal Science - Episode 23 - Culture eats strategy for Brexit.

8 September 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Special guest Jamie Smyth, the Australian correspondent for the Financial Times, joins the podcast to make sense of the Brexit chaos.

Global uncertainty up, Australian growth down

6 September 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Lots of activity on the home front this week. Australia recorded its first current account surplus in 44 years while GDP growth fell to its slowest pace since 2009. The RBA left rates unchanged. House...

Spiralling or negotiating? Trade wars, Brexit and global economic uncertainty

30 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Another relatively quiet data week on the Australian front, with second quarter readings on construction work done (down quite sharply) and private capital expenditure (also down but accompanied by a ...

The Dismal Science - Episode 22 - Oh, inverted world

28 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Mark and Ivan discuss the inverted yield curve and the AICD's number of the week.

A slow data week . . . but a surfeit of ‘news’

23 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

In a quiet week for Australian data the minutes from the RBA’s 6 August meeting show a central bank waiting for additional evidence before delivering further policy adjustments, but also one that is p...

Mixed labour market messages: strong jobs growth but flat unemployment and sluggish wages

16 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Business conditions remained subdued in July while August saw a bounce in consumer sentiment. Despite a pickup in the public sector, overall wage growth is still struggling to gain momentum. A sizeab...

Currency wars join trade and technology wars

9 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

As widely anticipated, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its 6 August meeting even as the government ten-year bond yield fell below one per cent for the first time. Australia recorded (yet anot...

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