AICD Chief Economist

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Jobless rate drops to 6.8 per cent in August surprise

18 September 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

August’s labour market report was surprisingly strong, delivering a marked decline in the unemployment rate, a small rise in the participation rate and an increase of 111,000 in employment. ...

Consumer sentiment bounces back

11 September 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment jumped 18 per cent in September, while the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan index also rose over the past week.

Q2 GDP slumps 7 per cent in record-breaking national accounts

4 September 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Real GDP dropped by seven per cent in the June quarter in the steepest fall since quarterly records began, bringing Australia’s golden run of 28 years of uninterrupted growth to a brutal end.

Payroll jobs fall as Victoria’s lockdown continues to bite

28 August 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Payroll jobs fell by one per cent over the month to 8 August, with jobs in Victoria dropping by 2.8 per cent. Private capital expenditure in the June quarter suffered its largest quarterly fall since ...

After seven weeks of falls, a slight rebound in consumer confidence

21 August 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

A very quiet week on the Australian data front means a much shorter weekly update this time after several bumper issues. Following seven consecutive weekly falls, consumer confidence has increased al...

One million unemployed and record low wage growth

14 August 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

July’s labour market report delivered stronger employment growth, a lower unemployment rate and a higher participation rate than had been expected. But it also left more than one million Austral...

JobKeeper expanded as growth expectations scaled down

7 August 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The government has eased eligibility requirements for the JobKeeper program as intensified public health measures in Victoria have prompted Treasury to scale back its forecasts for Australian GDP grow...

Dropping into deflation as CPI Index falls

31 July 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s consumer price index fell by a record-breaking 1.9 per cent in the June quarter. Payroll jobs have now fallen for the last three weeks. Consumer confidence continues to erode. Dwelling app...

An ocean of red ink to save the economy from COVID-19

24 July 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The government delivered its much-anticipated Economic and Fiscal Update this week. Ambitions of budget surpluses are now a vanishing dream as Canberra contemplates a deficit expected to approach ten ...

How global and Australian economic forecasts are changing

6 July 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell looks at the latest IMF report on the global economic outlook as well as Bloomberg's monthly forecast on Australia's projected growth.

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