AICD Chief Economist

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GDP growth up 3.1 per cent in Q4:2020 while RBA holds line on monetary policy

5 March 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Australia’s real GDP rose 3.1 per cent over the December 2020 quarter, comfortably beating market expectations, as the economy continued to enjoy a household-led recovery. Despite last week’s bond ma...

Reflation trade’ pushes up bond yields and the dollar while wage growth remains at record low

26 February 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The yield on Australian government debt and the value of the Australian dollar have both been under upward pressure as local spillovers from the global ‘reflation trade’ complicate life for the RBA. ...

Unemployment rate falls again as labour market recovery rolls on

19 February 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Another helping of good news on the Australian labour market this week. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.4 per cent in January while the underemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage ...

Upbeat consumers and optimistic businesses

12 February 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

It was a quiet week on the data front with only a couple of releases. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment Index rose almost two per cent in February to be up more than 14 per ...

Happy 2021: RBA delivers forecast upgrades, $100b more QE

5 February 2021 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

At its first meeting of the year, the RBA announced it would extend its asset purchase program by an additional $100 billion. In a follow-up speech, Governor Lowe said although the central bank was no...

Jobless rate falls to 6.8 per cent as labour market rebounds

18 December 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Employment rose by 90,000 people in November, the participation rate returned to a record high, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.8 per cent as for a second consecutive month the labour market deliv...

Feeling good: Consumer sentiment at ten-year high, business confidence up too.

11 December 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to a ten-year high in December. Reinforcing the message that households are ending the year in a positive mood, the weekly ANZ...

The Australian economy is growing again

4 December 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Real GDP rose by 3.3 per cent over the September quarter as the economy started to grow again, technically bringing the COVID-19 recession to an end but still leaving output more than four per cent be...

November PMIs, October retail sales continue recovery

27 November 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

A relatively quiet week for Australian data ahead of next week’s GDP report. ‘Flash’ Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) estimates for November show Australian business activity rising at its fastest pace...

Employment jumps as wage growth hits record low

20 November 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

October delivered a surprisingly strong labour market result with employment growing by more than 178,000, although a rise in the participation rate also meant the unemployment rate edged up to seven ...

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