AICD Chief Economist

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Mixed labour market messages: strong jobs growth but flat unemployment and sluggish wages

16 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Business conditions remained subdued in July while August saw a bounce in consumer sentiment. Despite a pickup in the public sector, overall wage growth is still struggling to gain momentum. A sizeab...

Currency wars join trade and technology wars

9 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

As widely anticipated, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its 6 August meeting even as the government ten-year bond yield fell below one per cent for the first time. Australia recorded (yet anot...

Stuck in lowflation

2 August 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Australia is still stuck in lowflation. Dwelling approvals continue to fall indicating ongoing weakness for construction although there was more positive news for the housing sector with the first mon...

Sluggish: A subdued outlook for the global economy

26 July 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

The RBA Governor is happy with Australia’s inflation targeting regime as is and stands ready to deliver more monetary easing if required. Updated IMF forecasts depict a subdued world economy with glob...

Watching the labour market: unemployment steady but underemployment down

19 July 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Minutes from the RBA’s July meeting confirmed the centrality of the labour market to the future trajectory of the cash rate. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2 per cent in June but the un...

Crumbling confidence?

12 July 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Business confidence dropped in June while consumer sentiment slumped in July. The Fed has signalled that it’s prepared to take out some insurance in the form of lower rates, prompting US share prices ...

Weekly Updates

12 July 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Here’s the latest weekly Economic Update from AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell.

‘Way down we go’: Cash rate hits a new record low

8 July 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

RBA rate cuts are like buses, you wait for ages for the first one to arrive only for the next one to turn up right afterwards. More signs of housing market stabilisation. Another record trade surplus...

Charting Australia’s fiscal footprint in international perspective

25 March 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

With the budget looming, I thought it would be interesting to provide a graphical tour of how Australia’s general government footprint compares to that of our peers in the OECD.

Battling narratives and Australia’s economic outlook

19 March 2019 | Mark Thirlwell

Large changes in business and consumer confidence can have important economic consequences, with swings in optimism and pessimism one source of shifts in overall economic momentum. Sure, the causality...

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