AICD Chief Economist

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Canberra rolls out massive fiscal support as the Coronavirus Crisis (CVC) crunches the global econom...

3 April 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The government’s new JobKeeper payment combined a huge fiscal commitment of $130 billion with an equally radical policy commitment to try to keep Australians in work. Economists are now looking nervo...

Coronavirus wage subsidy scheme: what you need to know

31 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The Federal government has announced $130 billion in wage subsidies to halt the unemployment spiral caused by COVID-19.

Economic indicators plummet at a rate exceeding that of the Great Recession

27 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Last week, we noted that the extent of financial market turmoil was reminiscent of the global financial crisis (GFC). This week we’ve seen increasing numbers of forecasters suggest that the Coronavir...

How coronavirus is impacting the economy

20 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD, Ivan Ah Sam

As more of the economy shuts down, AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell looks at how bad the COVID-19 crisis could get on this week's Dismal Science podcast.

RBA goes unconventional as COVID-19 crises prompts radical policy responses

20 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The economic impact of COVID-19 is unfolding through a series of interconnected crises. In the real economy these will take the form of vicious demand and supply shocks. Although these are now appeari...

Canberra hits the stimulus button as WHO declares pandemic and global markets tumble.

13 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The federal government has announced a $17.6 billion stimulus package designed to support business and jobs. Markets are also pricing in another RBA rate cut at next month’s meeting. Signs of the im...

Central banks battle COVID-19 as RBA cash rate hits 0.5 per cent and Fed delivers first emergency ra...

6 March 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp this week, seeking to protect the economy from the economic and financial market disruption triggered by COVID-19. With only 25bp left before we hit the effective low...

Global financial markets flinch on virus fears

28 February 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

A quiet week on the Australian data front before next week’s big download, which will bring Q4:2019 GDP, as well as the 3 March RBA meeting. Instead, attention has focused on the sharp financial marke...

Labour market woes: Unemployment rises as wage growth stagnates

21 February 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

The economy continues to be stuck with a relatively high level of labour market slack and sluggish wage growth.  The unemployment rate rose to 5.3 per cent in January while the underemployment rate cl...

New forecasts, new risks...and some familiar themes

14 February 2020 | Mark Thirlwell MAICD

Last Friday, the RBA released its February Statement on Monetary Policy which showed the central bank is now more downbeat on the near-term outlook than it was back in November, due to the twin impact...

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